Volebný rok zníži ochotu politikov príjmať
nepopulárne opatrenia či už v podobe znižovania verejných výdavkov alebo
zvyšovania daní. Pre ekonomiku Slovenska v roku 2010 bude smerodajné, či sa
zotaví zahraničný dopyt, ktorý počas krízy významne poklesol. Ak sa ukáže, že
oživenie ekonomík západnej európy je reálne a nie je len ilúziou vyvolanou
fiskálnymi stimulmi, bude to dobrá správa pre slovenské hospodárstvo, povedal
Juraj Karpiš z INESS pre The Slovak Spectator dňa 11.1. 2010.
THE ELECTION year will lessen the willingness of politicians
to adopt unpopular measures such as reducing public spending or increasing
taxes, says Juraj Karpiš, an analyst with the Institute of Economic and Social
Studies (INESS) think-tank. The Slovak Spectator spoke to Karpiš about his
views on Slovakia’s economic prospects, state spending and adoption of the
euro.
The Slovak Spectator (TSS): What factors or expected
changes will have the most significant impact on economic developments in 2010?
Juraj Karpiš (JK): Of key significance for Slovakia’s
economy in 2010 will be whether foreign demand, which dropped considerably
during the downturn, will revive. If it turns out that the revival of the
economies of western Europe is real and not just an illusion induced by fiscal
stimuli, then it will be good news for Slovakia’s economy.
TSS: Which areas of the economy will continue to be most
seriously affected by the crisis and which sectors can expect faster recovery?
JK: The most affected have been the financial sector,
mostly abroad, and cyclical branches of the economy, for example the automotive
industry and construction. Considering the prevailing problems which resulted
in the downturn, I expect that these branches will also suffer in 2010, perhaps
with the exception of some construction firms working on public highway
construction projects.
TSS: In its December analysis INESS asserts that the
government has been wasting taxpayers’ money. How did your think tank arrive at
this conclusion?
JK: Our analytical project called “Wasting by the
State” is an effort to at least approximately quantify the wasting of public
funds and cronyism in public procurement. Within this project we monitor Slovak
print media and from revealed and published cases of money-wasting and cronyism
we put together a database through which we can estimate the amount of wasted
public finances for a certain time period.
The numbers for the first three quarters of 2009 show that
there is a huge opportunity to improve the effectiveness of the state
administration and public procurement. The project has recorded cases in the
money-wasting category totalling €333 million.
During the first three quarters of 2009, serious suspicion
of cronyism within procurement by the state amounted to €145 million. Thanks to
investigative work by journalists and the subsequent media pressure, potential
cronyism in the state administration worth €160 million has been prevented.
TSS: Do you expect any change in these trends for 2010?
JK: Considering the fact that under the current
government cases pertaining to cronyism and wasting of public funds have been
emerging quite frequently without adequate response in the procurement
legislation or by holding people responsible, we do not expect that any
significant change will emerge until there are in-depth changes in the
management of ministries.
TSS: How do you evaluate Slovakia’s first year with the
euro?
JK: No significant problems emerged during the
process of the adoption itself. However, it is too early to evaluate the whole
process of euro adoption. For some groups in society the euro has been a good
step while it has been negative for others. While those who had their savings
in Slovak crowns can be satisfied, exporters are not that enthusiastic.
TSS: What are the greatest advantages and disadvantages
that Slovakia currently experiences as part of the eurozone?
JK: In regards to the economic crisis, the euro has
brought both positives and negatives. On one hand, it was possible to protect
the purchasing power of Slovaks’ savings since these did
not weaken as they did in neighbouring countries because of currency
devaluation.
Membership in the eurozone also resulted in lower expenses
for financing Slovakia’s state debt. The other side of the coin is that the
strong euro made our products and labour more expensive and less competitive in
international comparison. Another negative is that through our membership in
the eurozone we are participating in the risks flowing from the unhealthy
European banks and there is a possibility that through a loss in value of the
euro we will share part of the cost for their recovery.
The crisis has also revealed a question facing the euro – a
contradiction between politicians in individual countries and the unified
monetary policy. The crisis has only intensified this tension. Many countries
of the eurozone have ignored the rules of the Growth and Stability Pact and it is
questionable whether and how the eventual costs of saving countries with
irresponsible fiscal
policies will be distributed among the other members of the eurozone.
It is possible that this issue will emerge soon considering
the large problems of Greece. If the European Central Bank helps this or any
other country, then it means that Slovaks will share these costs.
The
Slovak Spectator, 11 Jan 2010 Beata
Balogová
