Rozhodnutie o tomto balíku považujem za významný prielom
v európskej integrácii a rázny krok smerom k centrálne riadenej Európe.
Politici rozhodli, že dlhy a nezodpovednú fiškálnu politiku konkrétnej
európskej krajiny zaplatia občania celej eurozóny. Toto riešenie vyvoláva
obrovský morálny hazard a pravdepodobne aj veľké národnostné pnutie v únii v budúcnosti.
Logickým druhým krokom je predstavenie pravidiel, ktoré by mali nezodpovednému zadlžovaniu
zabrániť a otázka ich možného efektívneho vymáhania. Tie však ešte neboli
predstavené, povedal pre The Slovak Spectator dňa 17.5. 2010 Juraj Karpiš z
INESS.
THE EUROPEAN Union is facing an unprecedented metamorphosis
and is heading towards stricter monitoring of the budgetary policies of its
member states, say observers reflecting upon efforts in Brussels to prevent
default by the eurozone’s weakest member, Greece, and avert a similar fate
among other heavily indebted European countries. Brussels could even acquire a
new authority to review the budgets of eurozone member states before they are
passed by national parliaments.
After providing Greece with a generous €80-billion loan
facility, EU finance ministers have also agreed to establish an emergency fund
worth €750 billion to prevent the debt crisis spreading across the union. While
critics say the move represents moral hazard, and risks exacerbating national
tensions, EU leaders say they acted in defence of the euro.
“I consider this proceeding unavoidable,” said Slovak Prime
Minister Robert Fico in response to the move, which will require Slovakia to
contribute to the rescue fund to the tune of several billion euros. “God save
us, if we had done nothing,” he added.
If Europe fails to take action it would have catastrophic
consequences for Slovakia too, said Fico.
An analyst with the
Institute of Economic and Social Studies INESS, Juraj Karpiš, said the creation
of the €750-billion lifeline for stricken EU members is a significant move, but
not necessarily in the direction he would prefer. He also suggested that a
logical move by the EU now would be to introduce rules to prevent irresponsible
debt policies.
“I consider the
decision on this package to be a significant breakthrough in European integration
and a decisive step towards a centrally directed Europe,” Karpiš told The
Slovak Spectator.
According to Karpiš,
politicians have decided that citizens of the whole eurozone will now pay for
the debts and irresponsible fiscal policies of a specific European country.
“This solution brings
huge moral hazard and most probably will also create large national tensions
within Europe in the future,” Karpiš said. “The logical second step would be
the introduction of rules which would prevent irresponsible indebtedness and
address how to effectively recover debt. However, these have not been
introduced yet.”
For Karpiš, default
and subsequent restructuring of the debt of countries that creditors consider
unable to meet repayments would be an alternative solution, along with the
subsequent recapitalisation of banks of key importance to the European
financial system.
The announcement of
the rescue fund somewhat calmed edgy markets earlier this week. However, market
watchers say that the huge package might only have a temporary effect.
Taming the deficit?
As for stricter rules, Fico said that he does not object to
a situation in which a country that does not meet fiscal rules could, for
example, be cut off from receiving EU funds.
Fico also said that Slovakia would have no problem with
stricter budgetary rules.
“We can, without any difficulty, agree with the proposals to
establish very strict fiscal discipline within the eurozone and the EU,” Fico
said, as quoted by the Sme daily on May 11, adding that Slovakia’s deficit
would shrink.
Government plans anticipate a Slovak public finance deficit
of 5.5 percent in 2010. But bank analysts’ predictions suggest this figure is
somewhat optimistic.
Mária Valachyová, an analyst with Slovakia’s largest bank, Slovenská
Sporiteľňa, predicted that this year’s public finance deficit might climb even
higher than last year’s, which stood at 6.8 percent of GDP.
Data published so far for the first four months of the year
indicate tax revenues below what the budget had assumed, Valachyová told The
Slovak Spectator.
“At the same time, the expenditure side is not being
adjusted to lower revenues before the elections,” said Valachyová. “It is
possible that this year too, as happened last year, it will be necessary to
help the municipalities. This is why we expect that the public finance deficit
could this year reach around 7.5 percent of GDP.”
According to Valachyová, the final result could be still
influenced by the next government, if it promptly implements savings measures
after the elections.
Martin Lenko, senior analyst with VÚB Banka, expects the
public finance deficit in 2010 to reach 7.4 percent, considerably above the
official 5.5 percent estimate.
As for the factors that will have the strongest impact on
the development of the deficit, Lenko told The Slovak Spectator that these
included economic development and its impact on tax revenues, along with
government’s willingness to cut spending.
Počiatek confident his predecessor talks about ‚Greek
path‘
Finance Minister Ján Počiatek has said that the Finance
Ministry is ready to make cuts if the situation calls for such a move.
“If more cuts are necessary, we are ready for this in the
second half of the year – if, of course, we are in government,” Počiatek said,
as quoted by the SITA newswire.
Meanwhile, former finance minister and deputy chairman of
the opposition Slovak Democratic and Christian Union (SDKÚ) Ivan Mikloš said
that Slovakia has been following the Greek path for some time already.
He suggested that neither Greece nor Slovakia used their
period of economic prosperity to cut their deficits. According to Mikloš,
Slovakia, just like Greece, has ignored the ageing of its population; he also
argued that the Fico government has been ruining the second, private pillar of
the country’s pension system.
The
Slovak Spectator, 17 May 2010 Beata
Balogová
