Ako povedal pre The Slovak Spectator dňa 13.12.
2010 Radovan Ďurana z INESS, I. pilier dôchodkového poistenia je pri
súčasnom nastavení udržateľný len za cenu vysokých dotácií zo štátneho
rozpočtu. Výdavky Sociálnej poisťovne prevýšili príjmy o zhruba 800 mil.
eur, ktoré bude treba doplatiť z daní, a to bez dopadu zavedenia II.
piliera.
THE ELITE club of
leading world economies has confirmed Slovakia’s hopes: the country is emerging
from a deep economic crisis and this year its economy is expected to grow by
4.1 percent. Next year, Slovakia might produce 3.5-percent growth year-on-year,
says the Organisation for Economic Cooperation and Development (OECD) in its
latest analysis.
However, the country’s
economic vigour is by no means assured and Slovakia’s homework for achieving
sustainable growth includes reforms to the country’s pension and tax systems,
and effective steps on unemployment. The country’s persistently high jobless
rates have secured Slovakia an unenviably high ranking among OECD members in
this area. The OECD also said in its economic survey, released on November 10,
that the deterioration of the public finances should be addressed.
Observers say that
effective reforms are doable and that the government can start right away by
making the country’s Labour Code more flexible and the pension system more
reflective of the state of the public finances.
OECD Secretary General
Angel Gurría visited Slovakia in late November and noted that there were
already signs of improvement. He said that by consolidating its public
finances, Slovakia was on the right path.
“Slovakia is carrying
out the right measures,” Gurría said after meeting Prime Minister Iveta
Radičová, as quoted by the TASR newswire. “It is moving forward with fiscal
consolidation, is displaying strong willpower to observe fiscal discipline and
is carrying out reforms. These steps make Slovakia different, sending out a
signal to the markets that the country is open for business, is doing business
and is a good place for business.”
According to the OECD
analysis, the global recession affected the Slovak economy to a greater extent
than most other OECD countries, “primarily owing to its exposure to world trade
and its specialisation in cyclical export goods, notably cars”.
“Challenges for
re-establishing a sustainable high growth trajectory are countering the risk of
increasing long-term unemployment, bringing government finances back on a
sustainable path and reaping the benefits of a transition to greener growth,”
the OECD wrote.
The OECD suggests that
the focus should be on reducing government spending, most notably via reforms
to the first pillar of the pension system.
According to Peter
Goliáš of the Institute for Economic and Social Reform (INEKO), Slovakia should
link the retirement age to life expectancy, reduce the annual adjustment of
pensions to the level of inflation, make it obligatory for young people to join
the second (privately managed) pillar of the pension system, and turn
pensioners’ Christmas bonus into a social subsidy, which would protect only
those threatened by poverty.
“In addition, it is
necessary to gradually eliminate the advantages of public sector pensions and
special pension bonuses in some professions such as the military, police,
judges and prosecutors,” Goliáš told The Slovak Spectator.
Radovan
Ďurana of the economic think tank INESS suggests that the way the current
pension system is tuned will be sustainable only at the expense of high
subsidies from the state budget. Despite the high burden of contributions paid
by citizens the expenses of the social insurer Sociálna Poisťovňa considerably
exceed its income, by roughly €800 million, even without the effect of the
introduction of the second pension pillar, Ďurana said.
The OECD notes that
Slovakia’s unemployment rate rose substantially during 2009 – by 3 percentage
points to 14 percent – and that the main challenge is to prevent further growth
in long-term unemployment, which was already very high before the financial
downturn.
There has never been an
easy solution to the problem of persistently high joblessness. Nevertheless,
Goliáš says that the future form of the Labour Code, which is expected to stop
the simultaneous granting of advance notice of dismissal and severance
payments, and to consider the overall flexibility of the relationship between
employers and employees, will be very important. The planned transitory labour
market for the long-term unemployed should also help.
According to Goliáš,
the future development of unemployment will depend on these changes as well as
the recovery of the economies of Slovakia’s main trading partners, which makes
it is very difficult to predict.
Ďurana
said that Slovakia previously experienced a shortage of qualified labour, but
that returning to such a situation will be more complicated because sharp
economic growth driven by foreign demand is unlikely to return.
“This
is precisely why the role of the government is so important in creating a
suitable environment for investments and the creation of jobs,” Ďurana said.
“The effort to reduce the tax and payroll tax burden, the highest
enforceability of the law, and a flexible labour market are unavoidable
preconditions for reducing unemployment.”
The OECD suggests that
there is a need to make “adjustments to minimum wage regulations and legal
extension of collective wage bargaining contracts so that they do not hinder
the determination of market clearing wages”.
As
for the tax system, Ďurana said that it should be stable, predictable and
should not lead to superfluous administrative spending.
“The
law on income taxes and VAT should be revised so that it is possible to
significantly shorten its wording, while the opportunities to use electronic
communication should be widened,” Ďurana told The Slovak Spectator.
Goliáš suggests that
Slovakia should use real estate taxes more effectively.
“Slovakia is the second
worst in their use, although these taxes are the least harmful to economic
growth,” Goliáš said. “The reform of social and health contributions in a way
that reduces the overall burden, as well as their administrative burden, is
important as well. There should be a unified return for tax and social and
health contributions.”
According to Goliáš, a
specific problem is the situation in the health-care sector, where the
indebtedness of hospitals must be stopped, for example by turning them into
joint-stock companies via partial privatisation, limiting concentration in the
health insurance market and regulating payments.
In terms of the
deterioration in the public finances, raising public sector efficiency can free
up resources and help stimulate productivity and thus potential growth, the
OECD says.
“A long-term problem
for the public sector is also non-functional programme budgeting, where
spending is not linked to concrete, measurable goals and it is thus impossible
to monitor its effectiveness,” Goliáš said.
According
to Ďurana, the public sector needs, along with legislative changes such as
electronic procurement, auctions and central procurement, a change in the
motivation of the responsible state officials.
“The
effectiveness of procurement should be reflected in the size of their bonuses,”
Ďurana said.
Beata Balogová
The Slovak Spectator, 6.12.2010
