Aj
v ďalšom článku The Slovak Spectator dňa 20.10. 2008 podrobnejšie cituje spoločné
vyhlásenie európskych think-tankov ohľadom globálnej finančnej krízy, ktorej
signatármi zo Slovenska boli INESS – Inštitút ekonomických a spoločenských
analýz, Konzervatívny inštitút M.R. Štefánika a Nadácia F.A. Hayeka.
SLOVAKIA supports the joint actions by eurozone
countries to calm the financial crisis: this was the message that Prime
Minister Robert Fico delivered to a special summit of eurozone leaders, who met
on October 12 and 13 in Paris to ponder the best responses to the financial
turmoil. Slovakia, which will join the eurozone on January 1, 2009 was invited
for the first time to the group’s meeting, which offered some respite to edgy
markets.
“I am putting a huge emphasis on the
joint action of the eurozone because I think that if these statements were to
be carried out, the financial markets would be calmed and it would bring a
return to trust,” Fico told public-service broadcaster Slovak Television on
October 12.
Eurozone leaders agreed on a financial
lifeline to ailing banks in order to prevent key financial institutions from
failing.
Meanwhile, the prime minister, the
governor of the central bank, analysts with commercial banks and market
watchers have continued to declare that the banking sector in Slovakia is
stable and solvent.
“Many of the measures that [eurozone
leaders] propose are not yet necessary for Slovakia to carry out because Slovak
banks are in good condition,” Fico said.
The Slovak cabinet has already amended
the law on deposit guarantees so that the state will guarantee the full amount
of customers’ cash deposited in Slovakia’s banks.
To ease some of the global monetary woes
the European Central Bank has reduced the minimum bid rate on the main
refinancing operations of the euro system by 50 basis points to 3.75 percent,
with effect from the main refinancing operation to be settled on 15 October
2008.
The interest rate on the marginal
lending facility has been reduced by 50 basis points to 4.75 percent and the
interest rate on the deposit facility has been reduced by 50 basis points to
2.75 percent, the ECB said.
However, the market in Slovakia
continues to ponder what the next steps of the National Bank of Slovakia (NBS)
will be.
“We expect the NBS to cut interest rates
at its next session by 50 [basis] points,” said Juraj Valachy, an analyst with
Tatra Banka. “However, this cut will not have too great an impact since in
three months Slovakia will become part of the eurozone and rates will then fall
within the remit of the European Central Bank.”
According to Valachy, the problem is
that even after the rate cut by the ECB, market rates have not come down on the
money market and that neither companies nor citizens have therefore benefited
from the cut in the form of lower interest rates.
“We expect that the ECB will continue to
cut its key rates decisively, with the goal of supporting the economy,” said
Valachy. “If the liquidity crisis calms, the cutting of interest rates should
be significantly reflected in market rates.”
Silvia Čechovičová, a senior analyst
with the ČSOB bank, said that cutting interest rates is a natural move that the
NBS must do because of Slovakia’s entry to the eurozone.
“If the situation on the money markets
was completely normal, cutting interests rates would also be reflected in lower
interest rates for banking products,” Čechovičová told The Slovak Spectator.
“However, the situation is not normal. Despite the cut to basic rates, rates in
the money market in the eurozone remain extremely high and do not correspond to
the basic rates.”
After Slovakia enters the eurozone these
rates will also apply to Slovakia, she added.
Will
forecasts change?
The market has also been waiting for the
central bank’s word on how it will revise its forecast for economic growth in
response to the impact of the crisis, since it is now clear that Slovakia will
not be unaffected by a slowdown.
Recent developments have confirmed that
the eurozone, which is Slovakia’s major trading partner, is anticipating a
considerable slowdown in economic growth, according to Valachy. Since Slovakia’s
economy is strongly intertwined with it, Slovakia will not avoid any slowdown,
he added.
Čechovičová agreed and suggested that
her bank would also revise its original estimate of GDP growth for 2009, which
currently stands at 6.5 percent.
“A slowdown in the growth of the
eurozone would naturally be reflected in Slovakia’s economy, which is a small,
open, export-oriented economy,” Čechovičová said. “We will wait for the GDP
numbers for the third quarter of 2008 and will then give a definite form to our
estimate. However, it should move in the range of 5.5 percent to 6 percent.”
According to Valachy, the crisis has
partially abated.
“However, a correction on the money
market has still to take place and the liquidity crisis is continuing,” Valachy
said. “It will take longer before financial markets return to normal.”
Čechovičová said that though the market
is still nervous, the recent measures taken by European authorities have
brought a certain dose of optimism.
“However, to say that we can see the
beginning of a new era would be premature,” she said. “Coordinated action on
the part of global central banks [cutting interest rates by 50 basis points]
has not so far been reflected significantly in the money market.”
Čechovičová said that the volume of
public guarantees, the buy-up of troubled assets, deposit guarantees, pouring
capital into the system and, primarily, the necessary degree of international
coordination give hope for the future.
Meanwhile,
on October 15, thirty-eight European economic policy organisations and
think-tanks released a joint statement about the financial crisis suggesting
that the basic cause of the global problem was that governments engaged in
excessive credit expansion and pressured banks to make loans, particularly home
loans, to unqualified buyers.
Slovakia’s
INESS – the Institute for Economic and Social Analyses, the Conservative
Institute of M.R. Štefánik and the F.A. Hayek Foundation were signatories to
the statement.
The
organisations proposed a set of recommendations that, in their opinion,
governments should follow in dealing with the crisis.
They
suggest that governments should refrain from rescuing particular businesses or
business projects since the “cost of saving businesses that have failed will
fall on the shoulders of others, through increased taxes, inflation, or capital
misallocation.”
The
think-tanks also said that governments should facilitate, and not hinder, the
process of the market determining prices that accurately reflect supply and
demand. They also believe that governments should share the burden with
businesses and consumers by cutting public spending and taxes.
The
Slovak Spectator, 20 Oct 2008, Beata Balogová
